Way back in 1934, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd published a famous financial analysis tome called Security Analysis. They argued that one-year returns are too volatile to make any informed decision on the future of a firm’s stock price. It was suggested that using data of five or even ten years to smooth the returns was a far better predictor of a security’s forward-looking price. If we then fast-forward to the 1980’s, “Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends” was published by John Campbell and Robert Shiller. They determined that “a long moving average of real earnings helps to forecast future real dividends” which are correlated with returns on equities. Shiller would eventually go on to use Graham and Dodd’s analysis as a way to value the stock market. Shiller and Campbell used market data from both estimated and actual earnings reports from the S&P index and found that the lower the CAPE (cyclically-adjusted price earnings), the higher the investors’ likely return from equities over the following 20 years.
As a client of MASECO you would have heard us talking about the equity market return premium, which states that the equity markets have outperformed the risk-free rate of return (for USD benchmarked investors: one month treasury bills) over time by a significant margin. The graph below is a nice long term illustration of this:
Click here to read the full article by Andrea Solana, Head of Advanced Planning, featured in The American.
In investing, time is your friend. The longer an investor can commit funds to a strategy, the greater the likelihood of success. I’m sure, for many of us, we wish we could give our younger selves the advice to start saving earlier.
Click here to read the full article written by Andrea Solana, Head of Advanced Planning, featured in the American in Britain.
When the President of the United States opted not to sign into law a bipartisan bill to fund several government agencies (a bill which was overwhelmingly supported in both the House of Representatives and the Senate), the US Government entered a partial shutdown at midnight on the 22nd of December. A government shutdown isn’t a unique event anymore. Shutdowns go all the way back to President Carter, and the only period in which there wasn’t a shutdown was during the George W Bush Administration. The current shutdown is the longest in US history.
The investment community has long been mainly the preserve of men. However, in the immortal words of Bob Dylan, ‘the times they are a changing’, and with them we bear witness to progressive developments beyond the obvious, and undoubtedly a force for good, which we would like to explore and share with you.
Andrea Solana, Head of Advanced Planning, features in the American once again, as is a regular fixture, discussing how to review your wealth goals and objectives in the new year. Please click here for the full article.
The US stock market has been on a bull run since its trough post-crash in March 2009. The S&P 500 index almost reached 3,000 at its peak at the end of September, an increase of over 300%. This is despite the anti-free-trade rhetoric that caused a jitter in February this year and punctuated the phenomenal performance of 2017 and January.
Social Security benefits form a bedrock of retirement income for tens of millions of Americans. Yet many would agree that the program is mired with unnecessary complexity which makes claiming benefits confusing. My intent is to use this blog post to help demystify some of the confusing elements of the Social Security retirement benefits system.