MASECO Webinar: Key Insights from “The US Elections – State of the Race & Global Implications”

Written by Communications at MASECO

On October 15, 2024, MASECO Private Wealth hosted an insightful virtual roundtable to analyse the upcoming US elections and their far-reaching global impacts. The event, led by Tor Flonaes, Partner and Senior Wealth Manager at MASECO, brought together leading experts Dr. Thomas Gift and Dr. Julie Norman from the Centre on US Politics (CUSP) at University College London. The discussion delved into the rapidly evolving dynamics of the US presidential race, the economic and political policies at stake, and how these could shape both domestic and international landscapes.

Tight Race in Battleground States

The panel highlighted that while the national popular vote is likely in Vice President Kamala Harris’s favour, the real decision will come down to a few critical battleground states; Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Currently, all these states are showing razor-thin margins, with less than 1% separating Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Dr. Gift emphasised the unprecedented nature of this election, with battleground states remaining highly unpredictable so close to voting day. Pennsylvania, in particular, is seen as a critical bellwether. If Harris wins the state, her chances of winning the election rise to 91%, while Trump would have a 96% chance of victory if he secures Pennsylvania.

Political Landscape and Senate Control

The webinar further noted that while Republicans are slightly favoured to win both the Senate and House of Representatives, the likelihood of a unified government is uncertain. Should Trump win, there’s a two-thirds chance of a fully Republican-controlled government, creating a more favourable environment for pushing through his legislative agenda. In contrast, a Harris victory would likely face significant roadblocks with only a one-third likelihood of Democratic majority in government.

Key Election Issues

The debate surrounding core policy issues remains intense. Trump’s campaign focuses on economic challenges like inflation and immigration, while Harris’s platform has gained traction with voters on social issues such as abortion rights and the defense of democratic institutions.

Trade and Fiscal Policy

Both candidates have outlined vastly different economic visions. Trump continues to advocate for aggressive tariffs, including up to 60% on Chinese imports and 10% on all imports, in a bid to boost domestic industries. Harris, by contrast, plans to maintain current tariffs but on a much smaller scale. On fiscal policy, Trump proposes making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and slashing corporate tax rates, while Harris intends to raise corporate taxes and introduce new tax policies targeting the super-rich.

Foreign Policy and Global Implications

The discussion also touched on the international impact of the election. Under Trump, the US is likely to follow a more unilateral foreign policy, particularly in dealings with China, NATO, and the Middle East. Harris would maintain a multilateral approach, favouring continued diplomacy and alliances, especially in relation to NATO and support for Ukraine.

Dr. Norman highlighted that the election presents a pivotal choice between multilateralism and unilateralism, and between stability and unpredictability. Both Trump and Harris are expected to maintain a tough stance on China, but with differing approaches—Trump advocates for aggressive tariffs, while Harris is more likely to pursue targeted sanctions.

Conclusion: Uncertainty and High Stakes

In summary, this election presents a choice between two starkly different paths for the US domestically and on the world stage. With high stakes and a real possibility of a contested election, the implications of the results will be felt far beyond American borders.